A matter of mere perception

Unless the perception of Pakistanis is harnessed in favor of the fight against terrorists and miscreants, no matter how many ‘high value targets’ are killed, the entire exercise to bring law and order will go in vain. Recall how radically the national opinion in Swat changed after Sufi Muhammad rejected the Pakistan Constitution followed by the video of the flogging. The Swat operation was given a chance of success once the it became an issue of Pakistan’s laws vs. a lunatics. Similarly, unless this war is completely perceived to be Pakistan’s – ie between Pakistanis who want the supremacy of the Constitution and those who want their want to prop up a pre-tribal society, no matter how convincing an argument presented against terrorism, it will fail. Like it has miserably failed the past ten years. Rather than seek more of the same, in greater magnitude, a radical break from all previous alliances is necessary to bring about the all important perception that no one can carry a weapon much less use it outside the security forces.

Win the hearts and minds by ridding ourselves of the perception that this war is being fought at behest of someone. We will always be in a better position to tackle terrorism even if turns into a mini-civil war. But what exists now is a war of attrition where the foreign powers have the option to wipe their hands clean without any obligation or much fear of consequences. We have no such option and will always live with the consequences. Better those consequences are determined by our own unilateral action.

A clean break in policy

Mere tweaking of policies in the hope of altering the downward spiral of the nation's trajectory are an exercise in vain. Only a clean break from the past 30 years of policies can offer a way forward.

Pakistan's civilian leadership remains happily passive to a swirl of events.  Perhaps they are waiting for the military to buckle under pressure and willingly agree to become subservient to the civilian leadership.  Or, perhaps the civilian leadership is hoping they will never have to tackle the terrorist onslaught and the military's monster is best left for the military to destroy.

Regardless, a dire situation with no upturn in sight. 

PTI's Dharna against Drone Attacks

PTI has successfully latched onto an issue that it can own with the holding of the second dharna against drone strikes in Karachi. 

The basic premise is sound:  The policy of entangling oneself with the US in Afghanistan will continue to have an escalating blow back for Pakistan.  35,000 Pakistanis have been murdered since 9/11 and terrorism rises every day.  The policy has failed.  Repeating the same will only exacerbate the situation. 


So a need to come up with alternatives.  Going against drone attacks is a no-brainer as almost everyone agrees that they not only enraging more people as a vast majority of those killed have nothing to do with the perpetrators of terrorist attacks.  Even more importantly, no country should be allowed to attack national territory.  So it's very easy to sway public opinion on side against drone attacks. 


Normally, whenever Chairman Khan took a stance on an issue, other parties jumped in and spoke louder than him for the same stance hijacking the issue.  This time, 'Dharna against Drone Attacks' is all Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf.  It's a stance with only upsides to it. 

More than likely, the drone attacks will cause more harm than good, and PTI will be there to reap the political rewards having lead for a change in policy on this issue.  A compromised political leadership, a military leadership financially entangled with foreign aid all function to isolate the establishment players.  PTI can only gain from this. 

Posing for the firing squads

One cannot dispute the single-minded resolve of the people across the Mediterranean Arab world for change.  The droves that come out of their homes everyday and face the firing squads are no less sincere in their desire for seeking change than 18th century French or the revolutionaries of Iran. 

I find poetry conveniently missing in the reporting of massacres of protesters in the global media.  There are only brief moments in generations that revolutionary movements occur.  Time knocks on the Mediterranean.  Unfortunately, perhaps the TV, Film and Media industries prefer revolutions nicely scripted through paid writers instead of leaving them in the hands of those posing for the firing squads. 

Punjabi Months

1. Po [December]
2. Maagh [Jan]
3. Phagan [Feb]
4. Chaiter [March]
5. Baisaakh [April]
6. Jaytth [May]
7. Haarr [June]
8. Saavan [July]
9. Bhaadroun [August]
10. As-suu [Sept]
11. Kat-aa [October]
12. Magar [Novermber]

Mickey Mouse Revolutions?

The revolutions of Arabia are, not surprisingly, turning out to be mickey mouse revolutions at best.  Egypt is firmly in the grip of the military dictators who are attempting to cushion the blows of the young against an old order.  Libyan nationalists, hoping to secure a different future find themselves, again not surprisingly, stuck between a senile old leader trying to wipe them out and NATO air strikes meant to convey who controls the ace card as well as invite the side willing to sign a Faustian pact vis a vis oil contracts.  Bahrain is now occupied by the defender of the two holy mosques.  The Yemeni leader is willing to leave but only after handpicking his successor.

Attempts to stage manage the aspirations of the people who seek change seem to be an exercise in vain. But regional an international forces would much like to see a mere facade of the new with cosmetic changes rather than what the protesters demand.  
More things change...

Post Cricket Semi-Final Analysis by Sabzi Mandi Vendors

"Sister-fuckers!"

"They lost a match that was won!"

"Sons of thieves!"

"Sister-fuckers!"

Gaddafi's last stand

As Tunisia and Egypt went down to anti-government protesters, the message for the rest of the Middle Eastern regimes was to stand up and fight it out.  Unfortunately, this is no longer an age when media and channels of communications can be curtailed. 

However, Bahrain, Libya and Yemen are next in line for the battles for regime change.  Bahraini leadership seems to have over-played its violent hand and now the opposition looks like it has won the upper hand.  Back in 1994, I was privy to some of the ethnic strife when I'd travel through the congested areas around the Yateem Center.  Apparently much of Bahrain's police force was recruited from Pakistani Punjabis - who were often targeted by the majority community.  The sunni royalty of Bahrain will probably give up most of it's power to the majority group(s) in exchange for ensuring that Iran has negative impact on future policy decisions.  For a regime that will inevitably fall, the other oil rich Arab states in the region are going to press the Bahraini royalty to do them a favor and gain something out of the fall. 

Gaddafi's Libya is crushing the Benghazi rebellion seeking a full-fledged battle.  It reflects how these protesters are not seeking a compromise.  Both sides know it's a 'do-or-die' scenario, a zero-sum game.  There is no notion of 'truth-and-reconciliation' commissions being formed.  The successes of Tunisia, Egypt and eventually Bahrain, is proving to be contagious. 

Although so far Egypt and Tunisia seem like a case of 'aasman say utra, khajuur main atka' (i.e. out of the pan and into the fire) so far, the middle class which has lead these movements will nevertheless find common ground in other nations as well.  Right now, it's only a 'half-victory' at best.  But it's unlikely that the ruling elites will be able to convince the people to accept a change of face in return for maintaining a status quo for too long. 

If Gaddafi fails to remain in power despite causing a bloodbath, it will signal serious trouble for Algeria and more importantly, other oil-rich Arab states.