20 Percent Magic

As a contestant for a political office, when you have a monopoly on a group or community that has a > 20% vote bank, you are in a solid position to win the election. It's not a rule set in stone, but it's something that has figured into the books of political strategists.

This is why I would assume it is possible for some political parties that may be abhorred in certain 'majority' communities, to end up winning the highest offices.

With a monopoly on 20% of a vote bank secure, there is very little a party to candidate must do to win. All that's really required is another 30% - if it's a two way race - even less if there are multiple candidates. The opponent(s) meanwhile needs to do much more.

This explains why the PPP always maintains its vote bank. It has the solid support of the Muslim and non-Muslim minority communities. Shias, Christians, Hindus etc. - all non-Muslims almost exclusively vote for the PPP. Add the Sindhis to the mix and you can see why the PPP, even when it is at its most unpopular lows, can win at least 20% of the vote. On average days, it can win 30-35%. In Pakistan that is sufficient to become the largest party and lead a coalition government.

In the Indian state of West Bengal the Muslim population is > 20% of the vote bank and this is one reason the leftist win. In Kerala, large groups of minorities help the leftist control the levers of power.

20% seems to be a number that is just right. A number that is not too big to warrant the minority community from making an exclusively separate party. And it's not too small to be ignored. A political party or candidate can use their monopoly and merely try to win a few more people over to secure victory.

I would assume this may also work in Obama's favor in today's elections in the South where the black community is bigger than the 20% figure in some states. Perhaps the Christian conservative blocks play the same role for the Republicans in the same region. However, I would be interested in seeing how much these two blocks work to secure victory for their candidates.

Mullen comes to mull

Kiyani and Mullen have met today in Islamabad apparently to discuss why Pakistan won't let the US forces to intrude into the territories of Pakistan.

Shouldn't need an explanation but perhaps the United States is worried over the sudden burst of valor shown by the Pakistanis. For almost 7 years the Pakistanis bent over backwards for the war on terror and now a it seems a breaking point has been witnessed by the nation. The war on terror has gone terribly wrong and the USA has utterly failed to achieve anything in Afghanistan. It's convenient to slander what was a classic banana republic but now with a democratic dispensation, that may not be so easy.

It's best if all parties realize that they should cooperate rather than pursue failed policies over and over again. Hopefully the meeting will conclude with the conviction to eliminate terrorists and help Pakistan rebuild the fabrics of its torn western regions.