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Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Kerry-Lugar Bill: The cat out of the bag

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President Zardari's been called a whole lot of things. Manipulative. Conniving. Corrupt. Devious. Shrewd.

Perhaps no one has felt the blows of these alleged traits more than the Pakistan Armed Forces after the passage of the Kerry-Lugar Bill. KLB will provide $1.5 Billion in annual assistance for five years to Pakistan. The problem however, for 'beggars who want to be choosers', is that KLB writes stipulations and conditions that need to be met for Congress to approve this aid every year. While there has been a lot of bru-ha-ha over these conditions in the Pakistan media calling the bill, drafted, signed and approved in a foreign land, as an act of 'selling the nation's sovereignty', the entity that has come out all guns blazing is the Pakistan Army.

The bill asks for various assurances that are more or less already in place. However, what disturbs the khakis is that the bill presses for an assurance that the Pakistan Army is under 'civilian control'. While this stipulation is a blatant act of reaching well into the sovereign realm of Pakistan the objective is something the 'civilian' governments of Pakistan have always had an impossible time in achieving.

The Army has called the shots in areas like the nuclear program, Kashmir policy as well as the policy for Afghanistan. It does not want to see an end to its jurisdiction in these areas.

Thus no surprise to see the armed establishment display horror at the passage of the Kerry-Lugar Bill that in no uncertain terms, delves into the sacred realm of the armed forces.

The opposition parties in Paksitan may cry foul, but the opposition that currently matters, PML-N is offering criticism that intentionally have no sting. It's leader Nawaz Sharif is safely away in London, away from the centers of storm. He thinks he is in a win-win situation. He failed to subdue the Army despite the 75% majority in parliament during his last stint in power. He now sees Zardari attempting it by bringing in the American 'carrot-and-stick' approach.

The Zardari-Army standoff cannot persist for too long. One of them will have to bow out or bow down. Nawaz would be happy with either, though I would assume he may be hoping that the Army, even if victorious, ends up significantly weakened in this stand-off.

The Pakistan parliament has asked that the 'disputed conditions' be scraped out. The American Congress has no real need to listen. The cat is out of the bag. The Army will unlikely stand for this and will make a move.

The contemptuous figure of Zardari has put his hand in the lion's den. While realizing that the center of power should be in the hands of the parliament, it would be a cruel twist if the current situation eventually results in a ubiquitous thief posthumously turning into a hero (after achieving 'martyrdom').

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