Projected winners of Gilgit-Baltistan Elections

The elections for the Northern Areas are taking place today.  These regions were left stranded since 1948 due to the UN Kashmir resolution calling for a plebiscite that would decide the fate of the region.  However, the people of Gilgit and Baltistan are non-Kashmiris.  The region is said to have been incorporated into the Kashmir princely province by the British colonial rulers.  Due to the UN resolution, Pakistan refrained from tampering with any major adjustment by providing a provincial status to the region.  These elections, the first for the people of the area, will be a major policy change. 

All the major political parties are contesting the elections.  Whereas the Punjab bye-elections have been delayed under the excuse of 'security threats', the locals appear quite eager to exercise their right to vote and advance their region's right to eventually become the fifth province of Pakistan.

While the People's Party has had a huge dip in fortunes due to it's rather suicidal stances on the judicial movement and the infamous NRO, the PPP will likely come out on top at the elections today in Gilgit-Baltistan.  For one thing, the PPP has traditionally done well among the minority groups.  The GB region is predominantly known to be of the Shia and/or Ismaili Muslim communities.  Secondly, these groups are fervent opponents of the Taliban - of any kind.  The unambiguous stance against the Taliban adopted by political parties like the PPP and the MQM will serve them well.  The latter may find some support base as the region is mostly composed of 'middle class' elements.

On the other hand, parties who are either based on individual land-lords, or oppose the military stance against the Taliban in one way or another, or are seen failing to represent the minorities of the nation, will most likely receive a sound thumping.  Irrespective of the outcome, the electoral process in the region should force many of the one-point agenda political parties with 'uniform' policies to realign their vision.  The elections in Gilgit-Baltistan, though numerically insignificant, will go a long way in forcing to innovate the banal ideological frameworks of most of Pakistan's political forces.