As Tunisia and Egypt went down to anti-government protesters, the message for the rest of the Middle Eastern regimes was to stand up and fight it out. Unfortunately, this is no longer an age when media and channels of communications can be curtailed.
However, Bahrain, Libya and Yemen are next in line for the battles for regime change. Bahraini leadership seems to have over-played its violent hand and now the opposition looks like it has won the upper hand. Back in 1994, I was privy to some of the ethnic strife when I'd travel through the congested areas around the Yateem Center. Apparently much of Bahrain's police force was recruited from Pakistani Punjabis - who were often targeted by the majority community. The sunni royalty of Bahrain will probably give up most of it's power to the majority group(s) in exchange for ensuring that Iran has negative impact on future policy decisions. For a regime that will inevitably fall, the other oil rich Arab states in the region are going to press the Bahraini royalty to do them a favor and gain something out of the fall.
Gaddafi's Libya is crushing the Benghazi rebellion seeking a full-fledged battle. It reflects how these protesters are not seeking a compromise. Both sides know it's a 'do-or-die' scenario, a zero-sum game. There is no notion of 'truth-and-reconciliation' commissions being formed. The successes of Tunisia, Egypt and eventually Bahrain, is proving to be contagious.
Although so far Egypt and Tunisia seem like a case of 'aasman say utra, khajuur main atka' (i.e. out of the pan and into the fire) so far, the middle class which has lead these movements will nevertheless find common ground in other nations as well. Right now, it's only a 'half-victory' at best. But it's unlikely that the ruling elites will be able to convince the people to accept a change of face in return for maintaining a status quo for too long.
If Gaddafi fails to remain in power despite causing a bloodbath, it will signal serious trouble for Algeria and more importantly, other oil-rich Arab states.
However, Bahrain, Libya and Yemen are next in line for the battles for regime change. Bahraini leadership seems to have over-played its violent hand and now the opposition looks like it has won the upper hand. Back in 1994, I was privy to some of the ethnic strife when I'd travel through the congested areas around the Yateem Center. Apparently much of Bahrain's police force was recruited from Pakistani Punjabis - who were often targeted by the majority community. The sunni royalty of Bahrain will probably give up most of it's power to the majority group(s) in exchange for ensuring that Iran has negative impact on future policy decisions. For a regime that will inevitably fall, the other oil rich Arab states in the region are going to press the Bahraini royalty to do them a favor and gain something out of the fall.
Gaddafi's Libya is crushing the Benghazi rebellion seeking a full-fledged battle. It reflects how these protesters are not seeking a compromise. Both sides know it's a 'do-or-die' scenario, a zero-sum game. There is no notion of 'truth-and-reconciliation' commissions being formed. The successes of Tunisia, Egypt and eventually Bahrain, is proving to be contagious.
Although so far Egypt and Tunisia seem like a case of 'aasman say utra, khajuur main atka' (i.e. out of the pan and into the fire) so far, the middle class which has lead these movements will nevertheless find common ground in other nations as well. Right now, it's only a 'half-victory' at best. But it's unlikely that the ruling elites will be able to convince the people to accept a change of face in return for maintaining a status quo for too long.
If Gaddafi fails to remain in power despite causing a bloodbath, it will signal serious trouble for Algeria and more importantly, other oil-rich Arab states.
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment